Could Bitcoin ETFs Soon Hold More Tokens Than Satoshi Nakamoto?

28th October 2024

Bitcoin ETFs, launched on January 11 of this year, have grown at an impressive rate, quickly approaching a collective holding of 1 million BTC. At their current pace, these funds—holding around 967,459 tokens—are expected to cross this milestone in the coming weeks.

This achievement would place Bitcoin ETFs close to the estimated holdings of Bitcoin’s elusive creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, believed to own around 1.1 million BTC.

This rapid accumulation reflects a growing demand for Bitcoin through regulated financial products like ETFs, which allow individuals and institutions to invest in Bitcoin without the challenges of directly managing cryptocurrency.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), an influential player in the Bitcoin ETF market, manages about 396,922 BTC on behalf of its clients. This places BlackRock in a strong position within the Bitcoin market, emphasizing the appeal of ETFs for broader audiences who might be looking for a regulated and familiar investment option.

Renewed Investor Interest and Bitcoin’s Price Rise

In recent weeks, Bitcoin’s value has surged to nearly $68,000, a three-month high. This price movement has encouraged more investors to pour funds into Bitcoin ETFs, resulting in the largest single-day inflows since early June on October 14, with over $555 million added. For the entire week, inflows topped $2.1 billion, marking the highest weekly increase since March.

This renewed interest could be influenced by multiple factors, including speculation around the U.S. presidential election and potential policies that may be favorable to cryptocurrencies. Additionally, Bitcoin’s reputation as a “digital gold” or safe-haven asset could be attracting investors amid global economic uncertainties, as digital assets are increasingly viewed as a way to diversify portfolios.

Comparing Bitcoin ETFs and Gold ETFs

Looking back, the first Gold ETF, launched in 2005, brought in around $1.5 billion in its initial year—a record at the time. Bitcoin ETFs, however, have seen over $21 billion in inflows within just ten months, highlighting a remarkable appetite for cryptocurrency exposure among investors. This comparison underscores the pace at which digital assets are gaining acceptance in traditional financial markets and suggests that the demand for crypto investments is on a different scale compared to earlier commodity ETFs.

Retail vs. Institutional Investors in Bitcoin ETFs

One notable trend in Bitcoin ETFs is the heavy involvement of retail investors, who account for around 80% of the current investment in these funds. This trend illustrates the widespread interest from everyday investors seeking convenient access to Bitcoin through a regulated investment product. At the same time, institutional interest is on the rise, with over 1,200 large investors participating in Bitcoin ETFs, including prominent names like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and the State of Wisconsin Investment Board.

Institutional participation is expected to increase as more investors look for ways to diversify portfolios with assets that have lower correlations to traditional markets. With their expertise and resources, institutional investors bring additional credibility and potential liquidity to the ETF market, further solidifying Bitcoin’s place in mainstream finance.

Despite the success of Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum spot ETFs have had a slower start. Since their launch, Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows of over $103 million, with more withdrawals than inflows in eight of the first 11 weeks of trading. This difference suggests a unique investor preference for Bitcoin over other cryptocurrencies, possibly due to Bitcoin’s long-standing position as the leading digital asset by market cap and its established role as a “digital gold.”

Final Thoughts

As Bitcoin ETFs close in on the 1 million BTC mark, they’re reinforcing Bitcoin’s position in global finance. The rising popularity of ETFs reflects Bitcoin’s journey from a niche digital currency to a significant component of diversified portfolios. The ease of investing in Bitcoin through ETFs offers a bridge for investors who might otherwise be hesitant to engage with cryptocurrency.

For those watching the evolution of digital assets, Bitcoin ETFs represent a substantial shift, providing access through familiar financial channels while driving demand and awareness. As the ETF market expands, Bitcoin’s reputation as a long-term store of value may continue to strengthen, bringing new opportunities for both individual and institutional investors alike.